Informações sobre o curso
4.8
1,127 ratings
239 reviews
We live in a complex world with diverse people, firms, and governments whose behaviors aggregate to produce novel, unexpected phenomena. We see political uprisings, market crashes, and a never ending array of social trends. How do we make sense of it? Models. Evidence shows that people who think with models consistently outperform those who don't. And, moreover people who think with lots of models outperform people who use only one. Why do models make us better thinkers? Models help us to better organize information - to make sense of that fire hose or hairball of data (choose your metaphor) available on the Internet. Models improve our abilities to make accurate forecasts. They help us make better decisions and adopt more effective strategies. They even can improve our ability to design institutions and procedures. In this class, I present a starter kit of models: I start with models of tipping points. I move on to cover models explain the wisdom of crowds, models that show why some countries are rich and some are poor, and models that help unpack the strategic decisions of firm and politicians. The models covered in this class provide a foundation for future social science classes, whether they be in economics, political science, business, or sociology. Mastering this material will give you a huge leg up in advanced courses. They also help you in life. Here's how the course will work. For each model, I present a short, easily digestible overview lecture. Then, I'll dig deeper. I'll go into the technical details of the model. Those technical lectures won't require calculus but be prepared for some algebra. For all the lectures, I'll offer some questions and we'll have quizzes and even a final exam. If you decide to do the deep dive, and take all the quizzes and the exam, you'll receive a Course Certificate. If you just decide to follow along for the introductory lectures to gain some exposure that's fine too. It's all free. And it's all here to help make you a better thinker!...
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Sugerido: 4-8 hours/week

Aprox. 32 horas restantes
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English

Legendas: English, Portuguese (Brazilian), Turkish, Ukrainian, Chinese (Simplified)

Habilidades que você terá

ModelingEconomicsDecision-MakingStrategic Thinking
Globe

cursos 100% online

Comece imediatamente e aprenda em seu próprio cronograma.
Calendar

Prazos flexíveis

Redefinir os prazos de acordo com sua programação.
Clock

Sugerido: 4-8 hours/week

Aprox. 32 horas restantes
Comment Dots

English

Legendas: English, Portuguese (Brazilian), Turkish, Ukrainian, Chinese (Simplified)

Programa - O que você aprenderá com este curso

1

Seção
Clock
3 horas para concluir

Why Model & Segregation/Peer Effects

In these lectures, I describe some of the reasons why a person would want to take a modeling course. These reasons fall into four broad categories: 1)To be an intelligent citizen of the world 2) To be a clearer thinker 3) To understand and use data 4) To better decide, strategize, and design. There are two readings for this section. These should be read either after the first video or at the completion of all of the videos.We now jump directly into some models. We contrast two types of models that explain a single phenomenon, namely that people tend to live and interact with people who look, think, and act like themselves. After an introductory lecture, we cover famous models by Schelling and Granovetter that cover these phenomena. We follows those with a fun model about standing ovations that I wrote with my friend John Miller. ...
Reading
12 vídeos (Total de 124 min), 6 leituras, 1 teste
Video12 videos
Why Model?8min
Intelligent Citizens of the World11min
Thinking More Clearly10min
Using and Understanding Data10min
Using Models to Decide, Strategize, and Design15min
Sorting and Peer Effects Introduction5min
Schelling's Segregation Model11min
Measuring Segregation11min
Peer Effects6min
The Standing Ovation Model18min
The Identification Problem10min
Reading6 leituras
Welcome10min
Grading Policy10min
Course FAQ10min
Syllabus10min
Help us learn more about you!10min
Segregation and Peer Effects10min
Quiz1 exercício prático
Why Model? & Segregation and Peer Effects12min

2

Seção
Clock
3 horas para concluir

Aggregation & Decision Models

In this section, we explore the mysteries of aggregation, i.e. adding things up. We start by considering how numbers aggregate, focusing on the Central Limit Theorem. We then turn to adding up rules. We consider the Game of Life and one dimensional cellular automata models. Both models show how simple rules can combine to produce interesting phenomena. Last, we consider aggregating preferences. Here we see how individual preferences can be rational, but the aggregates need not be.There exist many great places on the web to read more about the Central Limit Theorem, the Binomial Distribution, Six Sigma, The Game of Life, and so on. I've included some links to get you started. The readings for cellular automata and for diverse preferences are short excerpts from my books Complex Adaptive Social Systems and The Difference Respectively....
Reading
12 vídeos (Total de 138 min), 1 leitura, 1 teste
Video12 videos
Central Limit Theorem18min
Six Sigma5min
Game of Life14min
Cellular Automata18min
Preference Aggregation12min
Introduction to Decision Making5min
Multi-Criterion Decision Making8min
Spatial Choice Models11min
Probability: The Basics10min
Decision Trees14min
Value of Information8min
Reading1 leituras
Decision Models10min
Quiz1 exercício prático
Aggregation & Decision Models16min

3

Seção
Clock
3 horas para concluir

Thinking Electrons: Modeling People & Categorical and Linear Models

In this section, we study various ways that social scientists model people. We study and contrast three different models. The rational actor approach, behavioral models, and rule based models . These lectures provide context for many of the models that follow. There's no specific reading for these lectures though I mention several books on behavioral economics that you may want to consider. Also, if you find the race to the bottom game interesting just type "Rosemary Nagel Race to the Bottom" into a search engine and you'll get several good links. You can also find good introductions to "Zero Intelligence Traders" by typing that in as well....
Reading
12 vídeos (Total de 130 min), 1 leitura, 1 teste
Video12 videos
Rational Actor Models16min
Behavioral Models12min
Rule Based Models12min
When Does Behavior Matter?12min
Introduction to Linear Models4min
Categorical Models15min
Linear Models8min
Fitting Lines to Data11min
Reading Regression Output11min
From Linear to Nonlinear6min
The Big Coefficient vs The New Reality11min
Reading1 leituras
Categorical and Linear Models10min
Quiz1 exercício prático
Modules Thinking Electrons: Modeling People & Categorical and Linear Models20min

4

Seção
Clock
3 horas para concluir

Tipping Points & Economic Growth

In this section, we cover tipping points. We focus on two models. A percolation model from physics that we apply to banks and a model of the spread of diseases. The disease model is more complicated so I break that into two parts. The first part focuses on the diffusion. The second part adds recovery. The readings for this section consist of two excerpts from the book I'm writing on models. One covers diffusion. The other covers tips. There is also a technical paper on tipping points that I've included in a link. I wrote it with PJ Lamberson and it will be published in the Quarterly Journal of Political Science. I've included this to provide you a glimpse of what technical social science papers look like. You don't need to read it in full, but I strongly recommend the introduction. It also contains a wonderful reference list....
Reading
13 vídeos (Total de 132 min), 1 leitura, 1 teste
Video13 videos
Percolation Models11min
Contagion Models 1: Diffusion7min
Contagion Models 2: SIS Model9min
Classifying Tipping Points8min
Measuring Tips13min
Introduction To Growth6min
Exponential Growth10min
Basic Growth Model13min
Solow Growth Model11min
Will China Continue to Grow?11min
Why Do Some Countries Not Grow?11min
Piketty's Capital: The Power of Simple Model8min
Reading1 leituras
Economic Growth10min
Quiz1 exercício prático
Modules Tipping Points & Economic Growth18min
4.8
Direction Signs

10%

comecei uma nova carreira após concluir estes cursos
Briefcase

83%

consegui um benefício significativo de carreira com este curso

Melhores avaliações

por YKApr 7th 2018

The course presents a multitude of models that enable us to analyze human and systems behavior and interactions. By making implicit assumptions explicit we can understand real world processes better.

por GKFeb 25th 2017

Great content and lectures, that possibly provides new dimensions to look/explain the situation in context, I guess I will comeback for references to continue with this journey in to 'Model Thinking'

Instrutores

Scott E. Page

Professor of Complex Systems, Political Science, and Economics
Center for the Study of Complex Systems

Sobre University of Michigan

The mission of the University of Michigan is to serve the people of Michigan and the world through preeminence in creating, communicating, preserving and applying knowledge, art, and academic values, and in developing leaders and citizens who will challenge the present and enrich the future....

Perguntas Frequentes – FAQ

  • Once you enroll for a Certificate, you’ll have access to all videos, quizzes, and programming assignments (if applicable). Peer review assignments can only be submitted and reviewed once your session has begun. If you choose to explore the course without purchasing, you may not be able to access certain assignments.

  • When you purchase a Certificate you get access to all course materials, including graded assignments. Upon completing the course, your electronic Certificate will be added to your Accomplishments page - from there, you can print your Certificate or add it to your LinkedIn profile. If you only want to read and view the course content, you can audit the course for free.

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