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Habilidades que você terá

ModelingEconomicsDecision-MakingStrategic Thinking

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Programa - O que você aprenderá com este curso

3 horas para concluir

Why Model & Segregation/Peer Effects

In these lectures, I describe some of the reasons why a person would want to take a modeling course. These reasons fall into four broad categories: 1)To be an intelligent citizen of the world 2) To be a clearer thinker 3) To understand and use data 4) To better decide, strategize, and design. There are two readings for this section. These should be read either after the first video or at the completion of all of the videos.We now jump directly into some models. We contrast two types of models that explain a single phenomenon, namely that people tend to live and interact with people who look, think, and act like themselves. After an introductory lecture, we cover famous models by Schelling and Granovetter that cover these phenomena. We follows those with a fun model about standing ovations that I wrote with my friend John Miller.

12 vídeos ((Total 124 mín.)), 6 leituras, 1 teste
12 videos
Thinking More Clearly10min
Using and Understanding Data10min
Using Models to Decide, Strategize, and Design15min
Sorting and Peer Effects Introduction5min
Schelling's Segregation Model11min
Measuring Segregation11min
Peer Effects6min
The Standing Ovation Model18min
The Identification Problem10min
6 leituras
Grading Policy10min
Course FAQ10min
Help us learn more about you!10min
Segregation and Peer Effects10min
1 exercício prático
Why Model? & Segregation and Peer Effects12min
3 horas para concluir

Aggregation & Decision Models

In this section, we explore the mysteries of aggregation, i.e. adding things up. We start by considering how numbers aggregate, focusing on the Central Limit Theorem. We then turn to adding up rules. We consider the Game of Life and one dimensional cellular automata models. Both models show how simple rules can combine to produce interesting phenomena. Last, we consider aggregating preferences. Here we see how individual preferences can be rational, but the aggregates need not be.There exist many great places on the web to read more about the Central Limit Theorem, the Binomial Distribution, Six Sigma, The Game of Life, and so on. I've included some links to get you started. The readings for cellular automata and for diverse preferences are short excerpts from my books Complex Adaptive Social Systems and The Difference Respectively.

12 vídeos ((Total 138 mín.)), 1 leitura, 1 teste
12 videos
Game of Life14min
Cellular Automata18min
Preference Aggregation12min
Introduction to Decision Making5min
Multi-Criterion Decision Making8min
Spatial Choice Models11min
Probability: The Basics10min
Decision Trees14min
Value of Information8min
1 leituras
Decision Models10min
1 exercício prático
Aggregation & Decision Models16min
3 horas para concluir

Thinking Electrons: Modeling People & Categorical and Linear Models

In this section, we study various ways that social scientists model people. We study and contrast three different models. The rational actor approach, behavioral models, and rule based models . These lectures provide context for many of the models that follow. There's no specific reading for these lectures though I mention several books on behavioral economics that you may want to consider. Also, if you find the race to the bottom game interesting just type "Rosemary Nagel Race to the Bottom" into a search engine and you'll get several good links. You can also find good introductions to "Zero Intelligence Traders" by typing that in as well.

12 vídeos ((Total 130 mín.)), 1 leitura, 1 teste
12 videos
Rule Based Models12min
When Does Behavior Matter?12min
Introduction to Linear Models4min
Categorical Models15min
Linear Models8min
Fitting Lines to Data11min
Reading Regression Output11min
From Linear to Nonlinear6min
The Big Coefficient vs The New Reality11min
1 leituras
Categorical and Linear Models10min
1 exercício prático
Modules Thinking Electrons: Modeling People & Categorical and Linear Models20min
3 horas para concluir

Tipping Points & Economic Growth

In this section, we cover tipping points. We focus on two models. A percolation model from physics that we apply to banks and a model of the spread of diseases. The disease model is more complicated so I break that into two parts. The first part focuses on the diffusion. The second part adds recovery. The readings for this section consist of two excerpts from the book I'm writing on models. One covers diffusion. The other covers tips. There is also a technical paper on tipping points that I've included in a link. I wrote it with PJ Lamberson and it will be published in the Quarterly Journal of Political Science. I've included this to provide you a glimpse of what technical social science papers look like. You don't need to read it in full, but I strongly recommend the introduction. It also contains a wonderful reference list.

13 vídeos ((Total 132 mín.)), 1 leitura, 1 teste
13 videos
Contagion Models 2: SIS Model9min
Classifying Tipping Points8min
Measuring Tips13min
Introduction To Growth6min
Exponential Growth10min
Basic Growth Model13min
Solow Growth Model11min
Will China Continue to Grow?11min
Why Do Some Countries Not Grow?11min
Piketty's Capital: The Power of Simple Model8min
1 leituras
Economic Growth10min
1 exercício prático
Modules Tipping Points & Economic Growth18min
284 avaliaçõesChevron Right


consegui um benefício significativo de carreira com este curso

Principais avaliações do Modelos de Pensamento

por GKFeb 25th 2017

Great content and lectures, that possibly provides new dimensions to look/explain the situation in context, I guess I will comeback for references to continue with this journey in to 'Model Thinking'

por BGJan 26th 2019

I learned much more than anticipated. In fact I've already started exploring areas of my work that model thinking would apply and how to use the tools presented in this class. Highly recommend!



Scott E. Page

Professor of Complex Systems, Political Science, and Economics
Center for the Study of Complex Systems

Sobre Universidade de Michigan

The mission of the University of Michigan is to serve the people of Michigan and the world through preeminence in creating, communicating, preserving and applying knowledge, art, and academic values, and in developing leaders and citizens who will challenge the present and enrich the future....

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