Violent Conflict in the World

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Global Trends for Business and Society

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University of Pennsylvania

Global Trends for Business and Society

178 classificações

Curso 1 de 4 em Specialization Business Strategies for A Better World

In this course, you’ll learn to analyze rapidly changing global trends, their effects on consumer and labor markets, financial systems, and geopolitical relationships among countries all over the world. Professor Mauro Guillen of the Wharton School has designed this course to help you understand the magnitude of influence these trends have on the business world and society. Through real-world case studies, both historical and contemporary, you’ll examine how changes within one society affect others. By the end of this course, you’ll have gained the tools to be able to identify, analyze, and adapt to global changes as they affect your business and society.

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Module 4: The Shifting Geopolitical Landscape

In this module, you’ll explore global geopolitical landscapes and the global powers of the 21st century. Through examination of different political regimes—from autocracies to democracies—you’ll discover effective roles for states to play in society and its economy. You’ll also learn about failed states and anocracies, two importance sources of instability in the world, and how such instabilities manifest frictions and conflicts in the form of war and terrorism. Through analyzing the evolution of political regimes and failed states, you’ll learn the definition of global powers, the difference between and hard and soft power resources, and whether emerging global powers will cause dramatic changes in the existing geopolitical power structure. By the end of this module, you’ll have a deeper understanding of the trajectories of global powers, and be able to assess how the changes in geopolitical power structure will affect your business and society.

The Global Geopolitical Landscape2:43

Political Regimes8:03

Geopolitical Instability in the World4:45

Violent Conflict in the World5:36

The State Under Pressure3:27

Good Governance & Institutional Quality6:20

The Rise and Fall of Global Powers11:02

Global Power Resources12:27

China's Role in the World9:11

Global Governance8:44

Global Tensions9:35

Conheça os instrutores

Mauro Guillen
Professor of International Management
Director of the Lauder Institute of Management and International Studies

Now we have a sense as to these two very important source of instability

in the world, namely the issue of anocracies and failed states.

Now let's take a look at some of the manifestations of those frictions and

conflicts in the form, particularly, of war and terrorism.

You see there in the 19th century, and also the 20th century, wars between states

were the dominant form of armed conflict in the world.

In the 21st century,

what we're witnessing is new forms of violent conflict in the world.

because in fact, as we shall see in a moment, wars, either within countries or

between countries, are down in terms of their frequency.

But at the same time other forms of political ethnic and

religious violence, especially terrorism, are on the increase.

Let's take a look at the numbers.

Here we have a chart from the Center for Systemic Peace that shows us for

every year since the end of World War II the number of active wars either

within countries which are called Civil Wars, which is the blue line of the chart.

All wars between states or between countries,

which is a red line on the chart.

It's very clear that the tendency over the last 30 or

40 years has been on the decline especially since the end of the Cold War.

This particularly affected the number of civil wars in the world in Latin America

and in Central American in particular.

In sub-Saharan Africa, in parts of South and East Asia.

If you remember competition between the United States and the Soviet Union often

led to local conflicts in the form of civil wars around the world.

So this is a welcome trend, but unfortunately as we all very well know

over the last five or six years, since the beginning of the Arab Spring, we

have seen a slight increase in the number of civil conflicts around the world.

One of them, the Syrian conflict of course, with major repercussions for

the Middle East and for Europe.

As of the end of the year 2015, I think we should all congratulate ourselves in that

there are no registered wars between states or countries in the world.

Which is of course a very welcome fact.

Now the bad news comes when we consider terrorism.

Here we have an indicator of the frequency and the gravity of terrorist

attacks in the world, which is the number of victims from terrorist attacks.

Starting 20 or 30 years ago and

running all the way to the middle of the year 2016.

And it is very clear that the beginning of the 21st century marked

a new era in terms of terrorism in the world,

beginning of course with the 9/11 attacks in the United States.

A very dangerous aspect of these upward trends

in terms of the impact of terrorism around the world, as measured for

instance, as you can see on this chart, by the number of victims, has to do

with the concentration of this phenomena in just a few countries around the world.

Including those in the Middle East but not only those, also Russia, India and so on.

One very important implication of civil wars and terrorism is the growth in

the number of people who are displaced from their places of residence.

Lets talk about Refugees and Displaced Populations.

The difference between refugees and the displaced is actually very simple.

The term refugee is mostly used in the case of international displacement.

That is to say people who are forced because of conflict,

to move from one country to another.

Whereas a term displaced is used in the context of

forcibly move populations within a particular country.

As we can see on the table here, the recent conflicts in Afghanistan and

Iraq displaced millions of people within their country and

also internationally as refugees.

The Syrian conflict that has started in the year 2011 in the wake of

the Arab Spring has so far displaced about 4.2 million people,

many of which are international refugees.

Now, while it is true that the displacement of people as a result

of World War II was much bigger in scale,

reaching about 15 million affected or also the partition of India or

the crisis in Bangladesh at the beginning of the 1970s.

Over the last 20 or so years, the numbers of refugees or

displaced people in the world has grown very quickly.

At the present time, there are about 15 million people in the world who are either

refugees or displaced.

And that is not only a human tragedy, it's also very costly

especially to the countries that receive those immigrants.

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