The purpose of this course is to help individuals and organizations survive when confronted with disruptive technologies that threaten their current way of life. We will look at a general model of survival and use it to analyze companies and industries that have failed or are close to failing. Examples of companies that have not survived include Kodak, a firm over 100 years old, Blockbuster and Borders. It is likely that each of us has done business with all of these firms, and today Kodak and Blockbuster are in bankruptcy and Borders has been liquidated. Disruptions are impacting industries like education; Coursera and others offering these massive open online courses are a challenge for Universities. In addition to firms that have failed, we will look at some that have survived and are doing well. What are their strategies for survival? By highlighting the reasons for the decline of firms and industries, participants can begin to understand how to keep the same thing from happening to them. Through the study of successful organizations, we will try to tease out approaches to disruptions that actually work. Our ultimate objective is to develop a strategy for survival in a world confronting one disruptive technology after another.
9.3 Summary II
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Surviving Disruptive Technologies (On Demand)
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Suggestions for how to respond to a disruptive technology
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Hank C. LucasRobert H. Smith Professor of Information Systems
School of Business
I think every instructor would like to have you remember, all the contents of a
course. I know that's pretty hard to do and I
know that I can't do it. So I want to in this final video for,
Surviving Disruptive Technologies, leave you with three takeaways, which I hope
you will be able to remember from the course.
There's some big lessons here that I think overshadow the others and dominate
them. The first of these that I feel very
strongly about is denying a disruption will affect you is very dangerous.
And I think you also have to realize that an innovation may not be impressive the
first time around. But it's only the first generation.
You know, the first iPad wasn't terrific. I didn't really buy one; I wasn't
tempted. The second iPad came along; the reviews
were great. I, I said, this is the time now to, to
get an iPad. Another thing that we haven't stressed
probably enough, is a good design is really a wonderful thing.
So, having a great product helps you tremendously, and that's what Apple has
found with it's i devices. One of the things that you can do, and I,
I don't mean to suggest you should be a pessimist,[LAUGH] but maybe what I'm
saying is that you want to be cautious. Imagine the worst possible scenario that
could come from a disruption. What's the worst thing that could happen
to us and then develop a strategy to survive that.
In the previous video we said consider scenario analysis.
Come up with various scenarios. We'll make one of those the worst
possible thing that could happen and have a plan to deal with that.
So, from an overall standpoint, I think this diagram, describes the, the real
major lessons, and takeaways, from the book.
Think the unthinkable. This this I, I attribute to a man named
Lars Kolind. He came in as a chairman of a company
called Autocon, which is a Danish hearing aid manufacturer.
The company was experiencing great difficulties, it was losing money.
He helped to turn it around. And one of the things he said and he
challenged people to do was to think the unthinkable.
And a part of that message is to be bold. Not, not to take no action at all, not to
sit back and watch things, not to, to stress the status quo, but think boldly.
Develop a strategy for survival. And that requires you to do something,
that I call here, make and execute tough management decisions.
Again, back to our earlier discussions, execute.
It's not just enough to make a decision, you have to implement that decision.
And a lot of organizations and managers have fallen short there.
You're going to have to change the organization, alright?
And organizational change we know is difficult.
That's going to affect management and employees and in some of our examples
senior management was unsuccessful in doing this.
And you're very likely to have to change the structure of the organization.
Because, the new products and services, the disruptive technology, may require a
different organizational structure, for the firm to continue.
And don't forget the stakeholders who are here.
You have customers, and customers are pretty important because particularly
they have this willingness to go somewhere else today.
Your employees, who you have to convert to potentially an new way of thinking and
to undertake new procedures and do different things then they have in the
past to cope with this disruption. And shareholders, who are not always the
most patient people on Earth, while possibly your, your results go down as
you prepare to meet the disruptive technology.
So the big three, the three things to take away, here they are.
One, avoid denial, that's the place where it all starts, that's where the trouble
begins. Denial is a message to relax and not do
anything, it says we don't have to worry about this.
The message here is, do worry about it. Think of Freud.
I think the word denial as a personality characteristic denial came from some of
Freud's early writings. Takeaway number two, be bold.
Develop some bold strategies. And what are some examples that we've
seen? Well Netflix streaming videos, FedEx
offering overnight express when nobody really had a need, or at least asked for
overnight express. Apple came out with iTunes and various i
devices and, and yet it was a computer company.
And it was, whether it realized it or not, changing its personality.
To be a consumer products company. Amazon said, hey, we'll start an
e-reader. Maybe people won't like to read
electronically, but if they do that's going to be a great business for us,
because we'll sell them the reader and we'll sell them the, the content from our
store. And Verizon said, hey, let's invest 23
billion dollars running fiber to the curb, in case people really like the idea
of having a high speed internet connection and TV and phone service from
us. Take away number three.
You gotta change the organization. I'm going to go back to 1532, which is a
long time ago, almost 500 years ago. And Niccolo Machiavelli, who wrote The
Prince. And in The Prince he says there is
nothing more difficult to take in hand, more perilous to conduct, or more
uncertain in it's success, than to take the lead in the introduction of a new
order of things. And I don't think, but that advice has
gotten it all old in the last 500 years. This is a difficult task to undertake and
to accomplish. So the three things again to remember.
Avoid denial. Think of Sigmund Freud.
Be bold. Lead the charge, and think of the prince.
Think of Machiavelli as you try to change the organization.
Well, that it, that's the end of the course.
I want to thank you for joining me. I have enjoyed working with everyone.
It's been a great experience. I want to wish you a lot of luck in
surviving disruptive technologies. I hope that in some way or another that
this course has helped you and that is truly the end.
And so from Frankie and me goodbye and good luck.
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