[MUSIC] Hello, my name is Thomas Pany. I'm Professor for satellite navigation at the Bundeswehr University in Neubiberg, near Munich. In this lecture, I want to show you a very specific way of digitization in aeronautics and space. And we will try to understand how satellite navigation as a flexible navigational method will gradually replace classical analog methods, and how this will affect the future of civil aviation. We will also include the discussion on upcoming challenges. Coming from the air mobility concept which includes things like air taxis and drones. For this purpose, we first consider how the aviation market is structured, and which current navigation problems need to be solved. This topic will be discussed in the light of the classical solutions for air navigation and modern approaches, which are summarized as performance-based navigation. Here, satellite navigation is the digital contribution to our navigation, and we have to understand how satellite navigation as a primary technology was developed and designed, and we need to understand why a direct use of this technology is not possible for safety critical application. Then we will introduce some methods to make GNSS or satellite navigation reliable and robust, and discussed in the current performance, and the way how this methodology will be implemented in future air traffic management. So let's come now to the first chapter of this lecture. Like the other chapter, it's more or less ten to 50 minutes long, and ends with a few simple questions, which would allow you to help to check if you understand the content correctly or not. Of course, if you think that you didn't really understand the content, you are free to rehear this chapter. In this chapter, I describe the size of the civil aviation market, and I want to make a point that civil aviation is really safe. And it also has to be very efficient in order to ensure short flight times or to reduce the fuel consumption, and also other challenges to provide an even higher capacity in this navigation technology. Civil aviation is really safe. Having for example a look at the year 2017, which was so far the safest year in civil aviation. I would like to let you know that in that year, 3.7 billions of passengers have been transported. I'm now writing this number down. So we had in the year 2017, 3.7 billions passengers. And to further illustrate this number, you should know that the average flight duration is around two hours. So within one day, 12 average flights can be conducted. If you multiply this number by the number of days per year, you end up with a figure of 4,380 flights per year of a duration of two hours, and dividing then, these are 3.7 billions of passengers by this 4,380 flights. We conclude that an impressive number of 1 million of passengers is really constantly in the air. So the year 2017 was really a safe year. So we had only one major accident of a commercial aircraft, and this accident caused a number of 67 fatalities. Of them, 32 were on board the aircraft, and 35 were on the ground where the aircraft crashed. This accident is of course sadly enough, but contrasting this again to the number of 1 billion people which are constantly in the air and the duration of one year, I think you get the good impression how safe aviation really is. Coming now to the market of civil aviation. So aviation is not only safe, but also the market which is affected by civil aviation is huge. We have reported figures here that in the year 2012, the contribution to the global gross domestic product of civil aviation was around $2.4 trillion, and the value of goods transported by civil aviation in that year was around $6.4 trillion. So that's really a huge number, and it also makes clear that any improvement in the regulations and also in the navigation system which is used by civil aviation, will finally result in a very large absolute value of economic benefit for our society. Also the growth of the civil aviation markets needs to be discussed. And easy performance figure to evaluate the growth of the civil aviation market, is to simply count the number of instrument flights which are conducted in a certain region. So in this graph here, you see the number of instruments flights conducted in Europe, and this number is collected by public authorities and made then available. We see here that in the year 1960, we had around 1.5 millions of flights. And then the year 2009, we had then maximum numbers of around 10 million flights. So there was really a constant increase in this market, and also the financial crisis which occurred in 2009 had a slight impact on the number of flights. But as you can see, it could not really stop and the number of flights is increasing again. Also, the other global recessions which occurred after 1970, there were three of them, could not really have a large impact on this trend. And some people even say that civil aviation is a very important mean to recover from a global recession, and to help to restart the global economy. Also the number of flights or expressed as the air traffic routes, which are used by the airplanes is a good figure to illustrate the growth of this market. So in this figure, you see here air traffic routes which are used by many airplanes. So from 2,000 to 40,000 per year as a red line, and routes which are less often used as blue lines. And there are predictions from international organizations how these routes develop over the years, and in 2020 we may have a figure like this, and in 2030 we will see a figure like this. This is again showing how this market is continuously growing, and this is also to be considered contrasting to the fact that we are really facing a lack of natural resources of oil. And also there's a discussion on the climate warming going on, but we have to note that all those points don't really have to have a serious impact on this market. I would like now, come to another aspect of air traffic, which is its vulnerability. We see very often or experience by ourselves events where flights are delayed or even flights are cancelled, and often don't understand why this is happening. And one reason for that is that our infrastructure, which is supporting this vast number of flights, is not really well maintained, and it's coming now to its capacity limits. For example, here you see a newspaper message of an blocked airport named Innsbruck in Austria, and this airport you have to know that it's still surrounded by mountains. So the classic methods of the landing procedure, the instrument landing system cannot be installed, and the new method, the satellite navigation methods are still not so well developed that they can be used. So this airport is quite sensitive and if fog is there, then the airport is closed, and on that day 2,500 passengers had to wait for their flights, and incoming flights were redirected to Munich. This on itself is quite a dramatic situation. But furthermore, this event spreads then out into the whole air traffic system, and also other flights which are relying on the airplanes which should have arrived at Innsbruck, are also delayed or even cancelled. And this is simply because of the fact that there are nearly no any free slots on the air routes and on the landing approaches, and therefore a simple event like this spreads out and often it takes days until recover from that. For example, it is quite interesting to know in the year 2018, we had around 30,000 flights from, to, or within Germany, which have been cancelled or had a delay of over three hours. So that's quite an impressive number, and also the route between Munich and Düsseldorf, had 320 flights which had been cancelled. The airplanes have to compensate the passengers for these delays, and in 2018 we had 800 millions of compensation payments, and in 2007 and it was 500 million Euros. So that's also a pretty impressive number, and if we can reduce even these compensation payments, it's worthwhile to do research in this area. There are also other aspects of air navigation which need to be improved, and they are shown in this graphic here. So we want to reduce also the cost efficiency of the air navigation means by 40%. Coming again to the capacity problem, we want to improve the capacity by around 100%. Also the environment is considered by this research program, and carbon dioxide reduction is targeted to be reduced by 10%, and also the operation efficiency targets a reduction of 6% in flight time, and 10% in fuel beyond reduction. All this research is carried out in Europe in the so-called SESAR program, which means a Single European Sky ATM Research, and ATM stands for air traffic management. As if there were not already enough sentence for the classic civil aviation, I would like now come to this new concept of air traffic, which is this air mobility concept. You can see here on the left side an artist impression of how our airspace may look in future, and you see here drones, air taxis, and also helicopters flying around. And all this air traffic has to be as safe as the well-known civil aviation conducted in the long-term air. So we have to apply the same safety standards, but have much less flexibility installing classic air navigation means. And for this concept, this urban air mobility concept, satellite navigation as the digital method of navigation. It's the only means which we can think of, which could support this new air mobility concept. So and with this, the first chapter comes to an end, and I hope I made it clear that air navigation market requires a really safe means of navigation, and also that it's quite huge. Feel free now to have a look at these questions and to answer them with the material presented in this first chapter, and you should have enough information also to do this simple calculation in the first question. [MUSIC]
