Lecture 4.2 Risks in Cyberspace

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Risk in Modern Society

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Universiteit Leiden

Risk in Modern Society

36 ratings

Risk has become one of the defining features of modern society. Almost daily, we are preoccupied with assessing, discussing, or preventing a wide variety of risks. It is a cornerstone notion for businesses and organizations, but also for nation states and their many levels of government. And even for individuals, risk and the avoidance or embracing thereof, is a key theme. The course Risk in Modern Society sheds light on the broad concept of risk. In five distinctive weeks, this course closely examines various types of safety and security risks, and how these are perceived and dealt with in a wide array of professional and academic fields, ranging from criminology, counter-terrorism and cyber security, to philosophy, safety and medical science. Developed in collaboration with scholars from three universities (Leiden, Delft and Erasmus), this course will search for answers to questions such as: “what is risk?”, “how do we study and deal with risk?”, “does ‘perceived risk’ correspond to 'real' risk?”, and “how should we deal with societal perceptions of risk, safety and security?

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Modern-day Risks: Global Challenges

In this module, you will gain a deeper understanding and appreciation of modern-day risks by looking at three key contemporary global challenges involving risk. Throughout the week, each of these risks will be discussed by various experts, who will highlight the most important features and strategies to deal with them. You will learn how, both collectively and individually, each these challenges have the ability to significantly impact the globe, presenting a notable challenge for current and future generations.

Lecture 4.2 Risks in Cyberspace6:02

Lecture 4.3 Risks in Cyberspace / Part II6:33

Conheça os instrutores

Marieke Liem
Dr.
Institute Security and Global Affairs, Leiden University
Bibi van den Berg
Prof. dr.
Institute of Security and Global Affairs, Leiden University
Edwin Bakker
Prof. dr.
Institute of Security and Global Affairs, Leiden University
Jim van Steenbergen
Dr.
National Institute for Public Health and the Environment (RIVM) & Leiden University Medical Centre (LUMC)
Sabine Roeser
Prof. dr.
Ethics/ Philosophy of technology section, TU Delft
Margreet Vos
Prof. dr.
Microbiology and Infectious Diseases, Erasmus MC
Genserik Reniers
Prof. dr. ir.
Safety and Security Science Section, TU Delft
Pieter van Gelder
Prof. dr. ir.
Safety and Security Science section, TU Delft

Hi there. Welcome to this lecture on perceived and objective Risks in Cyberspace.

My name is Bibi van den Berg and I work at

the Institute of Security and Global Affairs of Leiden University in the Netherlands.

Today, I will tell you a little bit about the many faces of

cyber security risk and the key challenges

with respect to citizens perceptions of these risks.

Let's begin by asking ourselves,

"What is risk in relation to cyberspace?"

There's no easy answer to that question.

Risks come in many forms and guises in cyberspace.

One of the most tangible and high impact risks

revolves around targeting so-called critical infrastructures.

Think of waterworks, food and water supply systems,

but also transport systems or healthcare institutions.

If these elements of a nation's infrastructure fail,

this leads to significant societal and economic disruption.

So what does that have to do with cyberspace?

Many critical infrastructures today are

connected to the Internet for reasons of efficiency.

Operators can then access systems remotely,

but if operators can so can hackers of course.

What does that mean in practice?

One risk could be that a hacker would open a dam and flood a large area of land.

Another could be that outsiders could change

the chemical composition of our drinking water which may lead to

health risks or an attacker could let

a pipeline explode by increasing the pressure inside it.

A second large cluster of risks relates to military activities.

Cyberspace can be used as a battleground for wars between states,

using cyber weapons to attack the opponents

critical infrastructure with all the potential risks we just discussed.

Attackers be they military or civilian could also tamper with

another country's media or meddle with internet

availability thus effectively putting citizens in the dark.

These two clusters of risk all relate to

the level of the nation state, but unfortunately,

cyber security risks are not just a problem for national governments,

the military or the international community.

A wide range of cyber crimes may target industries,

individual businesses and organizations and even citizens.

Think of for example stealing or manipulating data, Cyber theft,

making information or services unavailable,

Cyber terrorism and Hacktivism or disrupting and damaging systems through malware.

The impact of such crimes may vary but we do witness

a steady increase in their occurrence in many countries around the globe.

As you've heard in the introduction it is difficult to establish

exactly how big each of these categories of risks objectively are.

We have very little historical evidence to go on.

However, experts all agree that the categories of

risk that we just discussed are at the top of the agenda,

at least with respect to the potential disruption they may cause.

But what about perceived risks in relation to cyberspace?

Do these align with the objective risks we have described?

The answer is no,

but perceptions do vary depending on who you ask.

Nation states sometimes overestimate cyber security risks and threats.

They may use rhetoric on the risk of

a Cyber security Chernobyl or a Digital Pearl Harbor.

But in fact, to date

no cyber security incidents have materialized that warrant such a label.

Interestingly however, citizens oftentimes

underestimate cyber security risks and threats.

For them, the most important cyber security risk is that of

privacy violations and even those are highly underestimated by many people.

But citizens oftentimes are entirely unaware of

the consequences online actions may have in the offline world.

The risks we discussed at the beginning of this video on

remotely accessing critical infrastructures are a prime example.

Such risks could lead to large scale death and destruction,

but very few citizens recognize these risks for what they are.

So how can we explain the over estimation of risks

by nation states and the under estimation by citizens?

The answer to both lies in the fact that there is very little precedence.

As you've heard in the introduction,

we cannot use facts from the past to make

predictions with respect to future cyber security risks.

For nation states, that means that the balance tips towards

oftentimes politically fueled rhetoric that inflates the risk.

By the same token for citizens the balance tips in

the other direction because of their lack of awareness and knowledge.

So, what have we learned?

First, that cyber security risks come in many guises and target different actors.

Second, that the biggest risks lead to destruction or disruption in the offline world.

And third, that different actors have different perceptions of these risks.

States tend to overestimate them whereas,

citizens tend to underestimate them.

In the next video,

we will talk about some of the strategies that are

used to deal with cyber security risks.

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