Now what multistart does, it tries say a hundred different starting points for
all your changing cell combinations,
finds the best answer from each starting point and takes the best of the best.
This is a very powerful technique but
you if that little very few people know about but it really works well okay.
So what we've got here is solver.
Let's look at our solver window.
We want to minimize the sum of squared errors like before we could do absolutes.
We want to change the offense and defense ratings, the home edge and the mean goals.
Now here is where we need the balance on the changing cells.
Now here the things have to be non negative, because if you've got an index,
you can't have a negative index to predict negative goals.
So you need bounds on the changing cells, so you just pick reasonable bounds.
You could say the bounds are less than 1000, but
then the solver would take a longer time.
So mean goals and home edge, they gotta be less than three.
No soccer team averages more than three goals a game, and
if it bumps up against the bound, you raise the bound.
The average of the offense and defense rating should equal one.
That's not a bound, that's a constrain, and
then everything else should be less than or equal to three.
I don't think any team's going to score triple or give up triple the goals of
an average team or they wouldn't survive in premier league.
I like their system.
If you're really bad and you got knocked out of premier league go down a level and
the good teams move up.
I think the 76'ers should be penalized
in that fashion in the way they've been playing.