Learn how probability, math, and statistics can be used to help baseball, football and basketball teams improve, player and lineup selection as well as in game strategy.

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Math behind Moneyball

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Learn how probability, math, and statistics can be used to help baseball, football and basketball teams improve, player and lineup selection as well as in game strategy.

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Module 6

You will learn how two-person zero sum game theory sheds light on football play selection and soccer penalty kick strategies. Our discussion of basketball begins with an analysis of NBA shooting, box score based player metrics, and the Four Factor concept which explains what makes basketball teams win.

- Professor Wayne WinstonVisiting Professor

Bauer College of Business

Let's talk about the important concept of effective field goal percentage,

which is considered an advance metric.

It's really not that advanced.

Okay, now let's consider a team that takes,

each of these teams takes 100 shots.

Okay, and this team makes 45 2-point field goals and two 3-point field goals.

So they scored a total of 96 points which is like making 48 wo-pointers.

So you'd say they really shot 48%, and

that's where effective field goal percentage comes from.

Okay, we'll show you the formula within a minute.

It's field goals made plus half the three-pointers divided by

field goal attempts.

So here you made 47 field goals, and

then you would take a half times the two three-pointers and divide by 100.

And that gets you 48%.

It's like shooting 48% on 2s,

if you made this many two-pointer maybe this many 3-point field goals.

See here's a team that made 46 field goals on a 100 shot,s but

really they just got shot better because they got more points.

They got 98 points, so it should be 49% effective field goal percentage,

because 98 points is like making 49 two-point shots.

And then the formula becomes, what is it going to be?

We made 46, field goals plus we take,

Half of those six point three-pointers, those six three-pointers,

And that's divided by 100.

And that's 49%.

Now let's do this for every team in the NBA.

We've got the data.

So we could take their field goals made,

plus half their three-pointers, and

we could divide by their field goal attempts, so copy that down.

Okay, so the Warriors shot 53.9% there.

Okay, now let's get rid of this.

And I can do a rank, so here's the EFG.

Now, if I change this to percentage, Ctrl+1 Number, Percent.

Let's go two decimal points.

And now a function we haven't learned in Excel Rank,

I can tell you how something team ranks.

Say rank this number among all these numbers,

and I take ,0 means the biggest first.

I messed up there, I want to rank D23, okay,

so the warrior's ranked first, okay?

In the effective field goal percentage,

with doesn't surprise anybody when you watch [INAUDIBLE].

The Clippers ranked second in effective field goal percentage.

The Mavs ranked sixth.

Now who was really bad here?

The 76ers and

the Nicks were really bad in effective field goal percentage as were the Lakers.

Lakers you really surprised.

Okay.

And the Timberwolves were the worst record in the league.

Were really bad, okay?

And you could do this of course to offensive,

effective field goal percentage.

And we'll see, we need effective field goal percentage when we talk about

Dion Oliver's great four factor model, which tells you what makes teams win.

Okay so we'll see you in the next video when we talk about the four-factor model.

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