Learn how probability, math, and statistics can be used to help baseball, football and basketball teams improve, player and lineup selection as well as in game strategy.

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Math behind Moneyball

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Learn how probability, math, and statistics can be used to help baseball, football and basketball teams improve, player and lineup selection as well as in game strategy.

Na lição

Module 6

You will learn how two-person zero sum game theory sheds light on football play selection and soccer penalty kick strategies. Our discussion of basketball begins with an analysis of NBA shooting, box score based player metrics, and the Four Factor concept which explains what makes basketball teams win.

- Professor Wayne WinstonVisiting Professor

Bauer College of Business

Let's talk about the important concept of effective field goal percentage,

which is considered an advanced metric, it's really not that advanced.

Okay, now let's consider a team that take, each of these teams takes 100 shots.

Okay, and this team makes 45 two-point field goals and

two three-point field goals.

So they scored a total of 96 points, which is like making 48 two-pointers.

So you'd say they really shot 48%, and

that's where effective field goal percentage comes from.

Okay that's, we'll show you the formula in a minute.

It's FGM+ (0.5 X 3PTM)) /FGA.

So here you get, you made 47 field goals, and then you would take

a half times the two three-pointers, and divide by 100.

And that gets you 48%.

It's like shooting 48% on twos, if you made this many two-pointer and

made this many three-point field goals.

See, here's a team that made 46 field goals on 100 shots,

but really they shot better, because they got more points.

They got 98 points, so it should be 49% effective field goal percentage,

because 98 points is like making 49 two-point shots.

And then the formula becomes, what is it going to be,

we made 46 field goals plus we take half of those

six point three-pointers, those six three-pointers,

and that's divided by 100, and that's 49%.

Now let's do this for every team in the NBA, we've got the data.

So we can take their field goals made plus half their three-pointers,

and we can divide by their field goal attempts, and copy that down.

Okay, so the Warriors shot 53.9% there.

Okay, now let's get to this,

and I can do a range, so here's the EFG.

Now if I change just the percentage, CTRL-1, Number, Percent,

let's go two decimal points, and now a function, we haven't learned

in Excel in length, I can tell you how it's something a team ranks.

Say, rank this number among all these numbers and

I think comma zero means the biggest returns.

I messed up there.

I want to rank G23.

Okay, so the Warriors rank first in effective field goal percentage,

which doesn't surprise anybody when you watch The Splash Brothers shoot.

The Clippers ranked second in effective field goal percentage.

The Mavs ranked sixth.

Now, who was really bad, here?

The 76ers and

the Knicks were really bad on effective field goal percentage, as were the Lakers.

Like, are you really surprised?

Okay, and the Timberwolves were the worst record in the league.

We're really bad up there.

And you can do this, of course, defensive effective field goal percentage.

And we'll see we need effective field goal percentage when we talk about

Dean Oliver's great floor factor model, which tells you what makes teams win.

Okay so we'll see you in the next video when we talk about the floor factor model.

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