Soluções monetaristas versus Soluções keynesianas para a inflação

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Do curso por University of California, Irvine

O Poder da Macroeconomia: Princípios da Economia no Mundo Real (em Português)

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University of California, Irvine

O Poder da Macroeconomia: Princípios da Economia no Mundo Real (em Português)

192 classificações

Neste curso, você conhecerá os princípios fundamentais da macroeconomia geralmente ensinados em cursos trimestrais ou semestrais para alunos de graduação ou MBA. E, talvez mais importante ainda, você também aprenderá a aplicar esses princípios a uma grande variedade de situações, tanto de sua vida particular quanto profissional. Assim, o Poder da Macroeconomia vai ajudá-lo a ser bem-sucedido em um ambiente globalizado e cada vez mais competitivo. This is a translated version. To join the original English version, please visit this page https://www.coursera.org/learn/principles-of-macroeconomics

Na lição

Desemprego, inflação e estagflação

Inflação, inflacionário, expectativa e curva de Phillips9:45

Taxa natural de desemprego e Espirais inflacionárias5:27

Soluções monetaristas versus Soluções keynesianas para a inflação4:14

Economia pelo lado da oferta e "Curva de Laffer"5:25

Conheça os instrutores

Dr. Peter Navarro
Professor
Paul Merage School of Business

[MUSIC]

Now besides demonstrating how politics, coupled with Keynsian

activism, can lead to such an inflationary spiral.

This Monetarist-inspired story I have told

you also raises an obvious policy question.

Namely, how do you stop such an inflationary spiral?

To the monetarist, the solution is simple.

Stop using expansionary Keynesian policies.

And allow the economy

to return to the natural or lowest sustainable rate of unemployment.

But, of course, you see the problem.

Even if we stop the upward spiral

of inflation, we still have significant inflation.

This is because a higher core rate of inflation has been built into the economy.

Specifically, in this case, even if we stop

inflation's upward spiral, we may still find ourselves stuck

at point A three in the figure, with a

new and higher inertial rate of inflation of 9%.

Here's the worst part of this dilemma.

Neither the traditional Keynseian or monetarist approaches to wringing

this inflation out of the economy has any political appeal.

The traditional Keynesian solution is a so-called incomes policy.

Impose wage and price controls until the inflation dissipates.

One problem with this approach, however, is that it may not work.

This is a lesson President Nixon learned when his

administration imposed temporary wage and price controls in 1971.

And then watched helplessly as inflation jumped right back up

into double digits, once the controls were lifted in 1973.

The other problem with an incomes policy,

is that it runs contrary to the ideological

beliefs of the majority of Americans who see

this country as a bastion of free market capitalism.

But simply, businesses don't want the

heavy handed government holding down their prices.

And workers don't want that same government holding down their wages.

Accordingly, there are very few advocates of wage and price controls today.

That leaves the Monetarists' solution, and from a political

point of view, it is equally unpalatable.

Specifically, Monetarists believe that the only way

to wring inflation and inflationary expectations out

of the economy, is to have the

actual inflation rate below the expected inflation rate.

However to achieve this, the actual unemployment rate

must be above the natural rate of unemployment.

That means only one thing.

Inducing a recession.

This is at least one interpretation of what the federal reserve did beginning

in 1979 under the monitors banner of setting monetary growth target.

In 1979 the Fed under chairman Paul Volcker adopted a sharply

contractionary monetary policy and interest rates soared to over 20%.

The resulting

recession was the worst since the great depression.

And it probably cost President Jimmy Carter

the 1980 election and a second term.

Nonetheless, the Fed's bitter medicine worked.

Between 1979 and 1984, inflation fell dramatically.

But at great human and economic cost.

This table estimates the economic cost of reducing

the inertial rate of inflation in 1979 of 9%, to 4% by 1984.

Over this period, because of the recession induced by the Fed,

the economy produced $1.5 trillion dollars less than its potential GDP.

While this $1.5 trillion dollars may have been

the economic price tag of the Fed's monetarist experiment.

There was a perhaps even more profound political result.

The hard economic times left a bitter

taste in the mouths of the American people.

Now hungry for a sweeter macroeconomic cure

than either the Keynesians or monetarists could offer.

Enter stage right, supply side economics.

[MUSIC].

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