Câmbio fixo versus Câmbio flutuante, padrão-ouro e o mecanismo “preço-espécie-fluxo” de Hume

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Do curso por University of California, Irvine

O Poder da Macroeconomia: Princípios da Economia no Mundo Real (em Português)

185 classificações

University of California, Irvine

O Poder da Macroeconomia: Princípios da Economia no Mundo Real (em Português)

185 classificações

Neste curso, você conhecerá os princípios fundamentais da macroeconomia geralmente ensinados em cursos trimestrais ou semestrais para alunos de graduação ou MBA. E, talvez mais importante ainda, você também aprenderá a aplicar esses princípios a uma grande variedade de situações, tanto de sua vida particular quanto profissional. Assim, o Poder da Macroeconomia vai ajudá-lo a ser bem-sucedido em um ambiente globalizado e cada vez mais competitivo. This is a translated version. To join the original English version, please visit this page https://www.coursera.org/learn/principles-of-macroeconomics

Na lição

Taxas de câmbio, balanço de pagamentos e déficits comerciais

Os déficits comerciais são um problema?3:21

Algumas considerações sobre o balanço de pagamentos5:38

Definição de taxas de câmbio e "Por que elas variam?"7:58

Câmbio fixo versus Câmbio flutuante, padrão-ouro e o mecanismo “preço-espécie-fluxo” de Hume6:45

Conheça os instrutores

Dr. Peter Navarro
Professor
Paul Merage School of Business

[MUSIC]

In the examples we have used thus far, the value of the various

currencies that we discussed were allowed to

freely move in response to market conditions.

This type of monetary system is called a floating exchange rate system.

However, not all countries of the world allow their currencies to float.

Instead, some use what is called a fixed exchange rate system.

In a fixed exchange rate system, a country will peg

the value of its currency tightly to the value of another.

Most often, the US dollar, or a basket of currencies.

The country will then make the necessary

adjustments to maintain the value of that pay.

To better understand these two starkly different systems,

floating versus fixed exchange rates, let's take a

trip through time.

Between 1867 and 1933, except for the period around World War I

Most of the nations in the world were on the gold standard.

Under this fixed exchange rate system, the currency issued by

each country had to either be gold or redeemable in gold.

And once a country agreed to be on the gold standard, its currency

was convertible into a fixed amount of gold.

With these fixed exchange rates, if the nation

ran a trade deficit, it would be required

to use its gold reserves to buy currency

to prevent the value of the currency from falling.

In contrast, if a nation ran a trade surplus, it would accumulate gold.

Now you might wonder why the gold standard was so popular?

The answer lies

in something called perhaps rather strangely the gold specie flow mechanism.

This monetary adjustment mechanism was first described by

Scottish philosopher and economist, David Hume in 1752.

And it is illustrated in this figure.

Suppose, then, that both Britain and the US start

with an equal amount of gold reserves, and begin trade.

The US initially runs a trade deficit, so that

it has to ship some of its gold to Britain.

If the U.S. continues to run such a

deficit it will eventually run out of gold.

However, before that can happen

Humes multi-pronged adjustment mechanism takes hold.

First, the U.S. money supply is reduced by its loss of gold.

Second, the U.S. price level falls.

The same time, the British money supply increases and British prices rise.

This all happens because by the quantity theory of money, if the

velocity of money v and real output q stay the same, this reduction

in money m must then reduce the price level p.

As a result of these changes in relative

prices in the U.S. and Britain, four things happen.

First, America decreases its imports of British and

other foreign goods, which had become relatively expensive.

Second, America's exports increase because America's

domestically produced goods have become relatively

inexpensive on world markets.

Third British consumers import more of

America's now more relatively inexpensive goods.

And fourth British exports decline because

British exports have become more expensive.

The matter of fact is that a balance of payments equilibrium is

restored in both Britain and the US by the gold specie flow mechanism.

Now, it is a matter of some debate whether Hume's Mechanism actually works.

But what is true, is that the gold standard worked reasonably

well at stabilizing the currency markets right up until World War

I, however, with the advent of the war, many nations had

to temporarily abandon the gold standard to finance their war efforts.

This led to inflation and, in particular, to differing

rates of inflation to differing countries. As we explained above.

Differing rates of inflation distort the relative value of currencies.

Thus when peace returned and nations return to the gold standard, the

old exchange rate no longer reflected the true value of the different currencies.

For example, the French Franc was

significantly undervalued, as a result, upon its

return to the gold standard, the French economy enjoyed an export

led boom and France began to accumulate large surpluses of foreign currencies.

In contrast, Britain had sustained lower inflation rates than

many of its trading partners so its currency was overvalued.

As a result, Britain found it difficult to sell

its exports and found itself overwhelmed by cheap imports.

By 1930, Britain was so drained of its gold

reserves that it had to abandon the gold standard.

At that point the U.S. dollar came under similar attack.

France in particular began to unload large

amounts of its surplus dollars for U.S. gold.

While the Hoover administration first stemmed this gold flow

by raising domestic interest rates, this act of contractionary

monetary policy also helped push, indeed some would say

helped shove, the US further ended the Great Depression.

Eventually in 1933, President Roosevelt followed

the British in abandoning the gold standard.

With the collapse of the gold standard in the 1930s, countries desperate

to create jobs in a depressionary

global economy, engaged in so-called competitive devaluations.

In particular, they began to devalue their currencies

in order to boost exports and reduce imports.

However, these competitive devaluations acted in a

fact like a beggar thy neighbor trade policy.

Jobs created in one country lead to job losses in other countries.

These economic pressures in turn contributed to

growing political pressures It eventually led to

World War II.

It was the harsh lessons of the 1930s that brought the Allied powers to

Bretton Woods, New Hampshire in 1944, as representatives from 44

countries met for 22 days to design a new international monetary system.

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