Now once you have identified these assumptions,

then you want to talk about those assumptions in two dimensions.

One is the probability that our assumptions will be wrong and

the second is the what will be the impact on our solution,

if our assumption is wrong?

So in these two dimensions, we want to talk about or classify our assumptions.

And you can go very fine grain classification where you do a lot of

classifications, a lot of levels or

you can just make two levels which is low and high for each of those dimensions.

So, that will give you four variations.

One variation would be low probability that it will be wrong and

low impact on the solution.

Second one is low probability that the assumption is wrong, but

it will have high impact on the solution if it is wrong.

The third would be high probability that it will be wrong, but

it will have low impact on the solution and the last one would be high probability

that it will belong and high impact on the solution.

So once you classify all of your assumptions into these four buckets,

then you want to talk about if there are a lot of these assumptions,

then which one are the high probability and the high impact and

you want start with those assumptions, meaning.

You want to validate or invalidate the assumptions in that bucket first.

So now, let's take an example and go through these steps.

So let's say, there was a College of Liberal Arts.

It's in the rural area away from the city and

they want to improve the image of the college.

And so they hire a CTO from a College of Science and Technology and

they gave him a task like hey, can you improve image of our college?

Because we want to increase the quality of students and

increase image of the college in the industry.

So the CTO kind of collected his team or organized his team,

hired a couple consultants.

And they said, what can improve the image of the college?

And they came up with this idea of digitizing the books.

So they wanted to digitize all the books or at least all the textbooks

that students use and then they want to give a tablet to every student,

so that they can read those books on the tablet.

And the cost of all this research and all this digitizing,

and the cost of the tablet will be included in the college fee and

the benefit that this team said were much better reading experience from this idea.

Normal getting around the books, so

students don't have to carry the books around.

It'll be better for taking notes etc., and

then it will increase the school reputation as a tech savvy college.

So now for this proposal,

what are some of the assumptions we are making for this to be successful?

So if you would look at it, one of the assumptions we are making is that it

is actually a problem for students to carry around books.

Do they really consider carrying around books as a problem?

Another assumption we have is tablets will provide better user experience or

better reading experience for the students.

From a tech savvy CEO, this is a no-brainer.

Because who doesn't like gadgets?

The third assumption could be that students will be willing to pay for

the table and for the digitizing of all these books, and then prospective students

will have favorable rating for the college if we provide digitized books.

So, those are at least these four assumptions that we are making for

this idea or this proposal.

So now, let's categorize these assumptions into those four buckets.

Now, categorization will be very much dependent on the context of the team

like what do they believe in or what is their experience?

So in this video, I'm going to just share my categorization based on my experience.

So for the first one, for me, I think it's a low probability of being wrong.

Because I have been a student and it has been quite a bit of work

to carry all these books around the whole day in different classes.

So for me, I think students might consider that as a problem that exists.

But I think it's going to be of low impact if it is wrong,

if this assumption is wrong.

Because if it provides a better reading experience, then why not?

So, the second assumption is tablet will provide better reading experience.

In my opinion, it is a high probability of being wrong.

Because in my experience,

tablet has never provided as good of an experience as a real book.

So for me, it's going to be a very high probability of being wrong and

I think it'll have a huge impact on the idea if it were being wrong.

The third assumption to me, it's high probability of being wrong.

Because if I don't consider as a good reading experience,

I don't think I'll be ready to pay for the solution as my tuition.

So I won't increase my tuition fee, because of this digitizing the books and

it will have a high impact on being wrong.

The fourth one is prospective students will rate this college higher,

if we provide digitized books.

Again, to me, I think it's a high probability of being wrong.

Because I think that's not a key criteria for me to select a college,

but it will have a low impact on the solution or the idea.

So again here, we classified it.

And so if it were to me, I think I'm going to start with validating or

invalidating the idea number two and three.

So, I will try to validate or

invalidate those two ideas first before I jump on to the other ideas.