[MUSIC] I will now present the economic framework of the export potential indicator. The idea is that we can write the share of a product in a country's exports as a product of its RCA, the revealed comparative advantage, of that country for that particular product, multiplied by the share of that product in world demand. So the revealed comparative advantage is an indicator that has been proposed by Balassa. And it is computed as the ratio of the share of the product in one country's exports divided by the share of that product in world exports. So the potential share of the product in one country's exports to a particular market can be expressed as more or less the same formula, except that we replace the demand of the wealth by demand of that particular market. Actually, when we do the computation, when we make a number of assumptions, theoretical assumptions, on world demand and countries' demand, what we get is a slightly modified formula where there is a ratio at the denominator of the RCA that takes into consideration the complementarity between the structure of what a country exports and what that particular market demands. So the actual formula is the one on the slide. So then to get to the actual formula for the export potential indicator, we add a number of dynamic factors and correction factors that will be explained later on. At the end, we have the product of four components. The first one is supply side, so the comparative advantage. It is based on the RCA, relative comparative advantage, but we also consider the growth of that RCA over time. We consider the trade balance, the trade surplus, and also the global tariff conditions that that particular exporter faces. So all these indicators make up the supply indicator. Then we have a demand indicator or actually two demand indicators. One of them is the share in that particular country's imports and the growth of that share. The second part of indicators is what market access. So the tariff conditions that this particular market applies to the exporter for that product, and factors that depend on distance, that reflects distance considerations. So all that is about demand. And finally we have in the middle in our formula bilateral trade relations between that particular exporter and that particular market. So it's based on bilateral trade that we can currently observe. And we also take into consideration the growth, expected growth, of the exporter and the market. [MUSIC]