Since starting my career as a professional futurist, I have probably said literally a 1000 times, four words that have made me a better thinker, a smarter strategist, and a better collaborator. Those four words I learned, here at the Institute for the Future. Strong opinions, lightly held. Strong opinions, lightly held. To explain to you what this means, I want to share with you one of my favorite ancient stories. This is actually a story from over 2,000 years ago. You may have heard it before, but probably not in the context of futures thinking. This is the story of the farmer and his horse, and I'd like to read it to you now. A farmer and his son had a beloved horse who helped their family earn a living. One day, the horse ran away, and all the neighbors came around and said, "No, your horse ran away, what terrible luck," and the farmer said, "Maybe, maybe not." A few days later, the horse returned, and he led back a few other wild horses with him, and all the neighbors gathered round and they said, "Your horse came back, and brought more horses with it, what good luck." The farmer says, "Maybe, maybe not." Later that week, the farmer's son was trying to train one of the new wild horses, and that horse threw his onto the ground, and broke his leg. Now, the neighbors came back around and said, "No, the new horse broke your son's leg, what terrible luck." The farmer said, "Maybe, maybe not." The next week, soldiers came marching into town, and they were looking to recruit boys for the army. When they came to the farmer's house, they couldn't take his son because he had a broken leg. Now, the neighbors gathered around and said, "Your boy has been spared because of his broken leg, what good luck." The farmer said, "Well, maybe, maybe not." We'll see. Now, this ancient story has so much wisdom for the practice of futures thinking. It reminds us that we have to be really humble when we make forecasts about the future. We might think that we know what the good consequences, and what the negative consequences of a new event, or technology, or change might be. But we have to hold that opinion lightly, because it is hard to predict what unexpected consequences might unfold. So when it comes to future thinking, this means a few really important things. No one thing it means, is that you should never allow yourself to be convinced that any forecast you make is inevitable, that a forecast is almost certain to come to pass. You want to hold that forecast lightly and be open to seeing other evidence, or hearing other points of views about why that future, might not be so likely. It also means that you should never allow yourself to be convinced that a particular future is definitely bad or definitely good for all people involved. You want to hold those opinions lightly and be open to hearing what other people have to say about what some positive consequences or negative consequences might be. But humility is only half the role. That's the lightly held half. But what about the strong opinions half? It's important but futures have strong opinions so that we can capture attention and spark imagination, and provoke discussion. I want to give you an example of a strong opinion that Institute for the Future Researchers recently put out into the world, to give you a sense of why it's so important to have a strong opinion in the futures that you forecasts. So this is an image from a forecast about the future of health, and the future of physical infrastructure. What will the cities and public spaces that we live in the future look like. As you can see here, this forecast includes a vision of escalators that you have to pay to take, if you haven't worked out physically enough in the last 24 hours. The idea here is that, maybe a city or an organization wants to motivate people to exercise more, and if they have to pay money to take the escalator instead of the stairs, they will actually get a little more physical activity, take a few more steps. This is a pretty provocative opinion. This is a pretty strong idea about the future. I'd imagine society taking a really authoritative role in deciding, "Have you had enough exercise today or not?" This is a provocative and controversial idea too. I think it's definitely not a future everyone would want to live in. When we present this forecast, it definitely simulates a lot of conversation, and even push bag. Some people point out. Well, what about people with disabilities, or people with a temporary injury, or a mother carrying a child. I mean this is a really fair infrastructure, and that's great, because it provokes you to talk about what you might want to do if this were a future you wanted to build, how can you accommodate more people and make this a more inclusive future while still trying to experiment with these ideas. As a futurist, if you have a lightly held strong opinion, you can take that feedback, and you can incorporate it, and you can improve your vision so that you start to inch closer and closer to futures that are both interesting and plausible. But also maybe start to describe a world that more people really would like to live in. So that's a strong opinion lightly held, and now that you know that all important rule, you are ready to start forecasting. In the next video, we are going to ask and answer that all important question, what exactly is a future forecast?