[MUSIC] Let's now move to another dimension of our problem. It's territory as a support of population. And this will probably very important factor for understanding the transformation of the global order by now. Let's have in mind that in 1800, there were only 1 billion of people on the world. At the end of the 50s, we were at 3 billion of people. But now, world has 7 billion of people. This transformation is a major factor of instability. And is explaining why what was possible in the 20th century is no more useful and even meaningful now. It explains also why politics cannot be considered now as it was at this time. This is the new world and this new world has some characteristic that I propose to take now into account. First, you know that, but I think it's very important to stress on, half of the humanity is located between Hindus and Japan. On the territory which is about the double of the European territory. That's to say, on this South and East Asia one individual out of two is located in this part of the world. And in this part of the world, the human density was, for a long time, a very strong rural density. Creating rural societies in a way that we can't imagine through our European history, and now this rural density is moving to an urban density with a real explosion. A real proliferation of cities everywhere in Asia and now also, and more and more, in Latin America and Africa. In this part of the world, six states, six countries have more than 100 million of inhabitants. This demographic power is a new dimension in the new geopolitics that we can't ignore from our European observation. With this evolution, with this transformation of the world population, we discover than old powers will be secondary powers, if we compare with the new demographic powers. In 2015, France will have about 50 persons of the Ethiopian population. And Iran will have about 120 million inhabitants. You can imagine that in this world, that was shaped by Europe and considered by Europe as its own creation, the real capacity, the demographic capacity of the Asian world and after for the African world, will totally transform the main characteristics of the global political balance. Now another point has to be emphasized, Africa is now one-seventh of the world populations. But in 2015, one individual, one human being out of four will be an African. We can imagine easily that in 2015, Africa will play a role which is quite different from the role which is now assigned to this continent. Now, I would like to stress three dimensions of these global demographics. First one, aging, second one, urbanization, third one, migration. One of the main parameters of the global transformation is aging of one part of the world. But on the other, the increasing part of young people in other parts of the world European and Japanese population is aging. This problem is a major problem, especially in Japan, in which we say that in 2030, if Japan wants to keep the same level of active population, it will have to host about 30% of migrant people. This is a great transformation for this kind of society. But the economic future, the social future, and even the political future of Europe is also clearly conditioned by this very concerning aging population. But in the same time, the growing young population creates other problems, especially, of course, in developing countries. Let's take into account the case of Niger. This Francophone African state. In 2030, 74% of the population will be less than 30 year old, and this proportion will be 62% for all Africa, when in Europe the proportion will be 29. You see the gap and what it does mean. Nowadays, 200 million Africans are between 15 and 24, that's to say, for them no job, or poor chance to get a job, unemployment, and so idleness, maybe violence and maybe even attracted by the child soldier status. Another aspect would be the growth of middle class, which is probably one of the main parameters of the transformation of the social structure in the world. Middle class is increasing strongly especially in the rising powers, Brazil, China, India, and so on. Now, we consider that 3 billion people are in the middle class in our present world. There will be 5 billion in 2030. This implies new values, new kinds of conception, new social structures, and probably new kind of political representation. Now, urbanization in the world is a crucial dimension of this demographic turmoils. In 1975, only three towns in the world had more than 10 million people. In 2050, there will be 27 towns which will count more than 10 million people. In Africa in 1960, that's to say, the time of the independence and decolonization, only 53 million people were living in towns. Now, there are more than 400 million, and 50% of them are living in slums. Urbanization as I mentioned, is a crucial dimension of our topic for a very simple reason which has been properly analyzed by Cal Deutsch. That's to say Deutsch points, that abrupt and massive urbanization creates an anarchical social mobilization, and these anarchical social mobilization leads to violence, to radicalism, to protest. And obviously, we observe that radical Islam took roots in recently urbanized part of the Muslim world. Muslim Brothers were created in the Nile Delta, when Islamist Revolution took place in Tehran at the time when the city counted about 10 million of people. This new fundamentalism finds in urbanization new networks for being involved and being committed. And these networks are connected to the traditional societies, and so religion and a fundamental radical vision of religion plays an important role. Let's turn now to migration, which is probably the most disputed aspect of the demographics problems of our present world. Immigrant is every people born abroad and who is not a citizen of the hosting country. UN report in 2000, indicated that migration should be considered as a good. Because migration is playing very positive functions. First, migration is balancing aging of developed societies. Migration is also able to take in charge rejected jobs. Migration is also able to cover social expenses, social entrants, and pensions. Migration does not fit to the main points of a common sense which is brought by the political rhetoric. First, migration is not an invasion, is not massive. We know now that migration covers about 3% of the world population, only 3%, and 50 years ago it was around 22.5%. That's to say, a very light change. Of course, in 1965 we counted about 75 million migrants. Now it's around 200 million migrants because the global population has increased. But it's not this massive invasion which was predicted by so many observers. A certain point that we have to keep in mind is that migration is a suffering. First of all, a suffering, people who have to leave their village, their family, their common social networks and to go abroad to a country which is not well known, where they will not be properly hosted. And people who have to take a risk, for instance, during 2014 only during one year, 3,500 people died in Mediterranean when trying to cross the sea for joining Europe. That is, first of all, a tragedy, a disaster for those who would try to do that. Third point, migration is also a normality in a global world. In a global world, migrant is probably the virtue of humanity. That's to say, we are in a world which is more and more communicating, which is more and more transnational. And how would it be possible to resist to this appeal of migration created by the transformation of the population in developed society and in developing societies? Keep in mind, that during the next 25 years, Italy will lost about 3 million people in its active population. When Nigeria will have 25 million more in this active population, how can a Nigerian resist to this appeal, to this discrepancy. Migration is also the main source of hybridization of population. We are now entering in a world in which ethnicity is no more shaping the world order. That's to say, in each nation state, in each territory, we have hybridized population and this hybridization creates a new kind of society in which more and more people are depending on their hosting societies, but also on the society of their origin and sometimes also on the society of transit. That's to say, this migration is creating a new kind of humanity in which more and more the origins and the reference are more and more diversified. Migration create a condition of globalization of issues. That's to say, with migration, domestic issues are less and less domestic and more and more internationalized. That's to say, for instance, and even in Middle East and even in Africa is also becoming an event in Europe through this migration, through this global network of people, through this new web which is more and more structured, and more and more creating new kind of social behaviors. That is modernity. [MUSIC]
